Last night, I showed the Climate Prediction Center's outlook for temperature for this coming winter. Tonight, let's take a look at precipitation.

To get a sense for how the forecast has evolved, here's the winter outlook that was issued back during the summer. The areas shaded green indicate a lean toward a wetter-than-average winter, and the darker the shading, the greater the confidence. Brown-shaded areas indicate a lean toward a drier-than-average winter, and again, the darker the shading, the more confident the forecast.

Now here's the most recently issued outlook - the general shape of the areas of green and brown didn't change much, but the shading is a little darker, an indication of slightly increased confidence. This is due mainly to the El Nino which is now likely to persist for the winter - this pattern of relative wetness and dryness in winter correlates well with past El Ninos. Note that our area isn't in either shaded zone, indicating that as far as the Climate Prediction Center is concerned, the winter precipitation forecast here is a toss-up.