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THURSDAY OCTOBER 18 - COMPUTER MODELING IV: THE MODELS
About a dozen computer models are available to modern weather forecasters,
running the gamut from models that produce detailed local forecasts for just the
next few hours to global models that forecast out two weeks. The
National Weather
Service runs several computer models daily, and weather bureaus from
Canada and the
United Kingdom, as well as
some universities and private companies, have quality
computer models too.
Meteorologists compare forecasts from the various models to see which are doing the
best job in each situation, and then apply their experience to evaluate the usefulness
of the computer guidance. The various models usually agree in a general sense, but
differ in the details. Forecasters often disagree on which model to believe, if any,
helping to explain why you sometimes hear different forecasts from different sources.
So far, human forecasters have been able to improve on the accuracy of computer
forecasts, and a forecaster who relies completely on computer guidance will never
compensate for the times when the models perform poorly.
Check out some
links to the
various computer models. It's a great way to get a feel for what an
operational meteorologist goes through
every day trying to prepare a forecast.
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