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WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 17 - COMPUTER MODELING III: STRATEGY
So exactly how does a computer make a weather forecast? Basically, a computer model
has two parts: weather observations - the starting point for the forecast - and
mathematical equations that describe how the current weather patterns will evolve
in the future. Some of these equations may even be familiar to you - for example,
Isaac Newton's famous F=ma, force equals mass times acceleration, is used to predict
the wind.
To link the observations and the equations, meteorologists overlay a
grid of points
onto the geographical area of interest. A grid is also stacked up vertically to create
a
3D array
of points. At each grid point, the computer takes the weather observations
and "solves" the equations for pressure, temperature, wind, and moisture to produce
forecasts a few minutes ahead. Those forecast values are then used to repeat the
process for the next time interval, producing a forecast a few more minutes into
the future, and so on. It takes about an hour and trillions of calculations for
a supercomputer to make a two-day forecast for North America.
Theoretically, you can get more detailed forecasts by
increasing the number of
grid points. But the more grid points there are, the more powerful the computer
has to be, and even lightning-fast supercomputers have practical limits. As a
result, there will never be a perfect computer weather forecast. Never.
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