With December starting this weekend, it's time to talk about the winter forecast.

Last year, I presented the Weather Service's winter outlook, but there are many reputable companies and individuals who issue winter forecasts. The consensus for the upcoming winter is for average to below-average temperatures in our area, with average to above-average snowfall. That would mean a winter more like last year's rather than the previous three winters which were relatively mild and snow-free.

To make seasonal forecasts, meteorologists use a variety of signals; for example, is an El Nino or La Nina in progress, what's the autumn been like, and how extensive is the snow pack over Siberia. If you'd like to get inside the minds of several long-range forecasters and examine the details of their methods, click here to go to a list of links to the winter outlooks from about a half-dozen forecasters.