Last night I introduced some research into the commonly held beliefs that rainy weather on Election Day reduces voter turnout, and thus may favor Republicans. But the results of the research don't really support this conventional wisdom.

First, there was little correlation between rainy weather and the likelihood that someone will vote. Only for a small subset of people who rated themselves as "not-likely-to-vote-anyway," did rain have a significant effect, but so few of these people end up voting at all that it didn't really matter. The bottom line seems to be - if you're civic-minded, you find time to vote, regardless of the weather.

As for inclement weather giving Republicans and Election Day edge - the research says "no." If anything, there was a little evidence that rainy weather might favor the candidate who was trailing in the election-eve polls - and in presidential elections of the last generation, that has usually been the Democrat, not the Republican.