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TUESDAY MAY 29 - LONG-RANGE FORECAST FOR SUMMER
According to the calendar, summer is officially more than three weeks away,
but we weather types tend to regard June, July and August as "meteorological
summer." With that in mind, let's take a look at the official outlook for
temperature and precipitation for the next three months, courtesy of the Climate
Prediction Center.
First, the
temperature outlook.
Where areas are marked red, forecasters are
leaning toward a warmer-than-average summer. On the other hand, the blue-shaded
regions indicate a lean toward a cooler-than-average summer. Our area doesn't
fall in either category, meaning that warmer-than-average, near-average, and
cooler-than-average are equally likely - you might as well flip a coin.
Now the precipitation outlook.
Here, there's only one area where forecasters
are leaning one way or the other - wetter-than-average in parts of the Midwest
and eastern Rockies. For the rest of the country, us included, there's no lean
either way.
If you now have the feeling that, at least for us, the summer outlook is pretty
ambiguous, you're right on. This is actually a pretty good example of the state
of seasonal forecasting right now, especially in the summer. Often there are
wide swaths of the country in which the Climate Prediction Center cannot
improve on a coin flip.
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