Franklin Fact Archive
January, 2000
February, 2000
March, 2000
April, 2000
May, 2000
June, 2000
July, 2000
August, 2000
September, 2000
October, 2000
November, 2000
December, 2000
January, 2001
February, 2001
March, 2001
April, 2001
May, 2001
June, 2001
July, 2001
August, 2001
September, 2001
October, 2001
November, 2001
December, 2001
January, 2002
February, 2002
March, 2002
April, 2002
May, 2002
June, 2002
July, 2002
Back to Franklin Facts homepage.
Back to TV12
|
MONDAY JULY 15 - FIVE-DAY HURRICANE FORECASTS
The National Hurricane Center
routinely issues three-day forecasts of the track and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans, so you can get predictions out to 72 hours in the future of a storm's location and strength.
Last year, the Hurricane Center began experimenting with in-house five-day forecasts, and this hurricane season they'll do it again. Statistics from last year show that, if formally implemented, the five-day tropical forecasts will be more accurate than the three-day tropical forecasts were when they were first introduced in the 1960s.
Having said this, you should realize that current tropical forecast capabilities are still pretty limited. For example, the average error in the track of a tropical storm or hurricane is still about 100 miles in a one-day forecast and and 230 miles in a three-day forecast - and 230 miles
is about the distance from Rehoboth Beach, DE, to Cape Hatteras, NC.
|