THURSDAY DECEMBER 27 - IMPLICATIONS OF RECENT WARMTH


November and most of December were much warmer than average, but that in itself doesn't mean the rest of the winter will go one way or the other. Still, there are a few implications for the weather in the weeks ahead.

First, ocean waters off New Jersey and Delaware are still relatively mild for this time of year. Water temperatures in late December are typically around 40oF, but this year are running 5-10oF higher. In general, this reduces the chances that any big storm coming up the coast will produce all snow, simply because most storms pull in some milder air off the ocean.

Second, and a little farther from home, don't be surprised if you hear of some incredible lake-effect snows in the next month. These localized Great Lakes' snowstorms form when Arctic air pours across the relatively warm Lakes, and the Lakes, like the ocean, are relatively mild for this time of year. But they're not big enough or warm enough to change the snow to rain. So the situation is ripe for heavy lake-effect snows whenever Arctic air arrives.

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