Temperatures finally turned more December-like this past weekend, but last month was the second warmest November on record around here. It's interesting to ask whether such a warm November says anything about this coming winter.

Here are the five warmest Novembers on record before this one came along, along with the average temperature that month and also the snowfall during the winters that followed those warm Novembers:

Nov 1931 - 54.0^oF - 6.8 inches
Nov 1975 - 52.7^oF - 17.5 inches
Nov 1994 - 51.7^oF - 9.8 inches
Nov 1985 - 51.2^oF - 16.4 inches
Nov 1927 - 50.9^oF - 17.5 inches

For comparison, the average winter snowfall is about 20 inches, so all of the winters that followed really mild Novembers ended up below average in snowfall.

Now this at least suggests that a really snowy winter is not very likely this year. But realize that a simple analysis like this one doesn't always end up pointing the right way. And it only takes one or two big storms to make an otherwise relatively snow-free winter seem really snowy.