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Election 2008 Reporter's Notebook WHYY's Delaware Tonight was in New Hampshire covering the primaries. They had complete analysis from regular political analysts Dennis Rochford and Chip Flowers, as well as from veteran reporter Rita Farrell on the ground in New Hampshire.
CLOSING THOUGHTS The battle in New Hampshire comes to a close but the fierce presidential race has just begun. With a mere two percentage point difference, Senator Hillary Clinton bounces back from her third place ranking in Iowa to defeat Senator Barack Obama for the Democratic win. The Republican victory goes to Senator John McCain with Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney closely following. Our Republican political analyst Dennis Rochford says the Democratic win caught him by surprise. Just a day before the election, he predicted Obama with the win. Next stop, Michigan. ELECTION NIGHT With election results being released within a few hours, the Delaware Tonight crew decided to take a look at what was going on in the surrounding areas. As we arrived at Democratic Candidate John Edwards’ exclusive campaign party in Manchester, we took a sneak peak through the open windows of the building. Prepared with campaign pins on hearts and drinks in hands, the group of Edwards supporters gathered around the TV to be the first to see the fallout. Members of the campaign staff began frantically buzzing as the motorcade approached. A cold twenty minutes passed before the candidate stepped off the bus to be greeted with applause and smiles as he was then quickly escorted into the party. Back at the hotel, media representatives along with campaign members were centered around the TV to hear CNN’s commentary of the results. All conversation was brought to an end in the lounge as Senator Barack Obama took the stand. Every eye in the room was locked firmly on him as he began to congratulate his competitors. People started to file out of the room following his speech and continued their conversations. Just as the excitement faded in the hotel - as did the excitement in the state of New Hampshire as the candidates took to the road for the next part of the presidential journey. January 8, 2008 The Ultimate Poll When the polls opened at 8 this morning in the former mill town of Tilton, NH, there were 28 people lined up, waiting to vote. Not unusual for a town of 3,500 residents. But the steady flow of voters was unusual. According to the town election moderator, Jim Randall, "Poll workers usually bring a book or knitting to pass the time when there are gaps in voters." But there were no gaps on this primary day, either in Tilton or in other towns across the state, including in the mountain hamlet of Bethlehem, where the consistent flow of voters promised to "blow us out of the water", according to voter list supervisor, Lana Tibbetts. What's happening? If exit polls are any indication, much of the turnout can be attributed to voters energized by a tall, slender young U.S. Senator and former community lawyer named Barack Hussein Obama. Polls Open, Excitement Builds There is excitement in the Granite State. Residents are heading to the polls. Campaign volunteers are getting ready for “results parties.” The volunteers (from across the country) have arms filled with a seemingly endless supply of candidate signs. “EDWARDS,””ROMNEY,” “RUDY,” “HILLARY,” “OBAMA,” ”MCCAIN,” and ”HUCKABEE,” signs are more plentiful than street signs in southern parts of New Hampshire. When we traveled central part of the state, signs were noticeably absent. In the Town of Tilton, the first visible clue that it’s Election Day is about a half mile from the polling place at a middle school. (Tilton is a town with 2375 registered voters. I’m told from Sunday and Monday a handful of rallies were held for several candidates. The quick stops drew crowds big enough to cause traffic jams.) Tuesday, one Clinton and one McCain volunteer greeted people as they drove into the school parking lot. Inside, residents were lining up to vote as soon as the polls opened at 8AM. Most of the residents I spoke with say what excites them most today, is the fact that it’s almost over - and life will return to normal. As candidates make their final push for votes in New Hampshire, their goal seems to be get to as many different events as possible. WHYY's Kay Young reports. DISCONNECT Political campaigns are about covering as much territory as possible and pitching your message to as many voters as possible. So, after a candidate has delivered all or part of his or her speech and given predictable answers to a couple of earnest questions… that's it! The candidate poses for a few pictures, autographs a placard or two, then smiles and waves while staffers hustle him or her into a waiting van. And away they go. And away goes a chance for the voters' very real concerns to be heard. The poet once said “Heard songs are sweet, but those unheard are sweeter.” But that doesn't apply to unheard questions or unaddressed concerns. So when a mill hand in New Hampshire or an auto worker in Delaware says “The mill (or the plant) has shut down or it has gone overseas....And asks how are we supposed to move somewhere else to work when we can't sell our homes because there are no jobs here? What's the answer to that question? It depends. For a candidate who has supported NAFTA or CAFTA, the answer might be: I feel your pain. Not really pal. OPEN GOVERNMENT? A common criticism that primary candidates level against president Bush is that his administration is secretive and controls information. So what is a common tactic of many front runner campaigns? Secrecy and control of information. And that's before they get into the White House. For example, last night Michelle Obama spoke to about 100 people in Littleton, New Hampshire at a public event. It was held in a tax supported Senior Center and was provided free of charge to the campaign. But it was closed to the press. Why? The first answer by the campaign press secretary was that all the campaigns do it. Excuse me? So the next answer was that speakers feel less constrained when reporters are not present. Really? Why is that? Inquiring minds want to know. And earlier that same day, former President Clinton spoke in the Berlin Town Hall to about 200 people who had gathered two hours before his arrival for an event scheduled that very day. But when a reporter asked the secret service for the name of the town where the next event was scheduled, the secret service said “We can't tell you that Ma'am. Security!” Tell that to anyone checking Hillary Clinton's website at that very moment for just that information. FINAL PREDICTIONS Voting in the New Hampshire presidential primary begins in less than 12 hours. In thirty six hours, a new calm will come over the state. Just to give you a sense from the voters point of view, speaking with a father and his son having breakfast at the counter of a diner next to the Nashua City Hall where John McCain and his wife Cindy had just made an early morning campaign appearance, he told me he wouldn't miss the 17 "robo" calls he received last evening between 5 and 7 PM. Having spent the last three days traveling with the WHYY News Team, my final predictions for how the top presidential contenders will end up in their respective primaries. Republicans: McCain (by less than 5 points), Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Giuliani and Thompson. Democrats: Obama, Clinton, Edwards and Richardson. My hat is off to the hard and diligent work of the WHYY News Team -- Kay, Megan and Gene -- and my traveling companions Chip and Rita. CLOSING IN The contest to see who wins the Republican and Democratic primaries for president in New Hampshire is closing in on the last thirty six hours -- for the Republicans it is a race between Senator John McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney -- and for the Democrats the contest is between Senators Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton. On the Republican side, we saw the campaign first hand in the newspapers this morning with the latest poll results -- McCain was leading by up to six points over Romney in a number of polls. In addition, McCain was drawing large crowds at town meetings in southern New Hampshire over the weekend. At the Milford Republican Party brunch today, I spoke to a number of McCain supporters (to include Republican U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham from South Carolina who was stumping for Senator McCain at the event) who had either voted for him in 2000, as well as a number of individuals previously committed to another candidate or undecided who had made the decision to support McCain. Senator McCain seems to have found his voice with many who had voted for him in 2000, as well as those who place a premium on a candidate's qualifications and experience to deal with foreign policy and international terrorism issues. Congressmen Ron Paul (R-TX) and Duncan Hunter (R-CA), both Republican presidential candidates, also attended the brunch. Congressman Paul was accompanied by former California Congressman, Barry Goldwater, Jr., and son of former U.S. Senator and Republican presidential candidate Barry Goldwater. The Fox News debate tonight among the major Republican candidates for president might be the last opportunity for Governor Romney to reverse the recent surge of Senator McCain in the polls and reclaim the position of frontrunner before the votes are cast this Tuesday. The Democrats continue to be faced with a tight race between Senators Obama and Clinton. Recent polls would indicate that Senator Obama has pulled ahead of Senator Clinton in the upcoming primary. But on the ground, this campaign is the equivalent of "trench warfare". Senator Obama this past Saturday filled the auditorium of the Nashua High School with over 2,500 people, and today the Clinton campaign clogged the roads to bring in an equal number to attend Senator Clinton's town hall meeting at the same high school (today the Channel 12 news crew had to park at an elementary school one-half mile away to film the motorcade because it was impossible to get any closer). At a town hall meeting for Senator Obama in Derry, New Hampshire today, another 2,000 people showed up -- but in response to Senator Obama's question as to how many were "undecided voters", almost 50% of the people in the auditorium raised their hands -- so perhaps the Hillary Clinton campaign to blunt the momentum of Senator Obama's win in Iowa is taking hold. Who will win the Republican and Democratic campaigns for president in tomorrow's primary -- stay tuned. WHYY's Kay Young reports from a weekend Obama rally in which the undecideds may have had the strongest showing. THE PRESSURE IS ON High expectations set the stage this morning with only a little more than a day before the highly anticipated first vote. Candidates have a limited amount of time remaining to prove to the voters of New Hampshire that they have the desire, ability and commitment to lead. Our day in the Granite State consisted of a Republican Party brunch, attempting to track down Senator Clinton through the standstill traffic in Nashua and attending a public rally for Senator Obama in Derry. One particular moment during the Obama event seemed to strike me the most. Senator Obama asked the crowd how many were still undecided for their vote for President. Almost every member of the crowd either raised their hand or shouted in unison that yes, they were counting on the next day and a half to be entirely won over by a particular candidate. The pressure is on. EXCITEMENT REMAINS Another great day in the Granite State filled with action on both sides of the political divide, but the excitement remains on the Democratic side of the ballot. The day following Senator Hillary Clinton’s (D-NY) impressive debate showing, New Hampshire voters crowded a packed high school in Nashua to provide Clinton with an opportunity to build new momentum for her campaign. By most observers account, Clinton’s turnout topped Senator Barack Obama’s (D-Ill) rally held at the same venue the preceding day. So the question you may be asking yourself, “What is a large turnout for a New Hampshire political event?” Well, about 2,500 people attended Obama’s Nashua rally on Saturday, while Clinton probably exceeded 4,000 for her rally held today (major turnouts for both candidates). On the ground, the edge is breaking in favor of Clinton in a race where the importance of the female vote will be critical to the success and failure of her campaign. Bottomline, Clinton is receiving a strong post-debate bounce in New Hampshire, even though the national media continues to underplay her odds (the importance of being on the ground versus being in a cozy television studio in Washington DC cannot be stressed enough). Obama, who is also drawing record setting crowds in New Hampshire, had an impressive turnout at another rally held for him in Derry today. After receiving an endorsement by former Senator and Democratic Presidential contender Bill Bradley in the morning, Obama proclaimed at his afternoon rally that a “New Majority” of the American electorate is forming behind his Presidential agenda. Obama provided no details of the composition of this New Majority, but he continues to maintain the rhetorical edge over Clinton by offering inspiring speeches for a Democratic Party longing for a new era of governance. Former Senator John Edwards (D-NC) campaigned throughout the state trying to align himself with Obama as another candidate for change. Edwards' strategy is clear – if Clinton falls hard in New Hampshire, he will continue in the race as a viable alternative to Obama and try to win key states in the South while waiting to capitalize upon an Obama mistake (if any). Very risky strategy…in fact, too risky for my taste…. The final act of this epic saga will be played tomorrow when former President Bill Clinton and Senator Clinton, each campaigning separately, will end the evening with a major joint rally in Manchester to encourage New Hampshire to pass the “Comeback Kid” title to the new Clinton. Obama will spend his final day campaigning throughout the state and also conclude with a major rally. Clinton knows that her technical and experienced mind is not a direct match for Obama’s populist rhetoric, so the addition of one the greatest orators of our generation to the mix could be the perfect combination to derail Obama’s fast moving train. Sadly, this race is shaping up as the ultimate Greek tragedy for my beloved Democratic Party – great candidates with inspiring ideas to propel mankind forward, but only one can emerge the victor. So, the die is cast for tomorrow, Clinton + Clinton versus Obama (and Edwards…). Who will be the hero, the villain, and the spoiler? Time will tell. Republicans Dine Together It’s been a busy day in New Hampshire. The morning started with a beautiful drive around highways lined with plowed snow and campaign signs. A Republican brunch had the WHYY Delaware Tonight team wandering around an arena in Milford, NH. (We all immediately thought of the wonderful city of the same name at home.) All but one of the Republican Presidential candidates sent surrogates to the event. But Texas Congressman, Ron Paul walked into the brunch escorted by relatives and friends, followed by adoring fans. When I asked him if he had plans to visit Delaware after the New Hampshire Primary, he replied, “I don’t know where we’re going.” A personal highlight for me as a native of the First State came from Maryland Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele. He spoke with us before his keynote address to the crowd. He delivered best quote of the day – “Delaware is important.” More to come… THE DEMOCRATIC VIEW FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE The political current in New Hampshire is at an all-time high, as the two Democratic front- runners did not disappoint voters waiting to see the last major party volley in the election cycle. For Senators Hilary Clinton (D-NY), Barack Obama (D-Ill), former Senator John Edwards, and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson the debate was a final display before the primary. Each wanted to persuade the significant number of independent voters in the Granite State to vote for them. For the most part, the candidates were respectful and tried to remain above the fray with few exceptions (I stress the word “tried”). So, the most important question of the night – who won the debate? Clinton emerged victorious. After a slow start in the first half of the debate, Clinton was able to shift the debate to her strength (experience) and distinguish herself from an audience awaiting strong answers from Obama, who needed to establish himself as a candidate of substance and not mere rhetoric. Obama, recognizing that the New Hampshire race is too close for error, was very cautious in his answers and allowed Edwards to play rough and tough against Clinton. Edwards, who remained on the attack against Clinton (and seemingly any corporation and special interest known to mankind) for most of the evening, appointed himself and Obama as the true agents of change from the outset of the debate and cast Clinton as part of the “status quo”. This opened a golden opportunity for Richardson, a former cabinet secretary under President Clinton, to lend a helping hand to Clinton by posing the question, “When did experience become a leper?” This single question posed by Richardson shifted the night to Clinton’s favor and allowed Clinton to muse that, along with her 35 year public service record, isn’t the first female President significant change? The audience answer - applause. It should be noted that Clinton received another unanticipated boost in New Hampshire from an unlikely source – the Republican debate held earlier in the evening (a boxing match had less barbs than that debate…but, I digress). One of the major questions of the Republican debate was, “If Obama was the Democratic nominee, how would you distinguish yourself from him?” The answer stated by all the Republicans (less the poor Charlie Brown of the group - Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)) – experience. Clinton (both Bill and Hilary) must of have been salivating at this free gift. A simple summary of tonight’s affairs, Clinton won, Richardson was humorous and poignant, Edwards attacked, Obama made no major gaffes and all the participants were prepared. Senator Joe Biden (D-DE), who withdrew from the race earlier this week, was missed during the foreign policy portion of the debate (all the remaining candidates need work on this area). Overall, a great night for Democrats in New Hampshire. NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMED FOR PRIMARY On Tuesday, New Hampshire will once again be the first state to hold a primary and vote its choice for a republican or democratic presidential candidate. – but the campaigning leading up to that vote began three years ago almost immediately after George W. Bush was re-elected President. Delaware Senator Joe Biden was among the first to establish a foot hold in the Granite State by leading a Saint Patrick's Day parade and solidifying his long time friendship with many Democratic Party leaders here. While he is respected in New Hampshire, his experience and new status as a statesman was overshadowed by the star power of Hillary Clinton and by Barack Obama’s undefined but compelling promise of change. However, out of the eight hundred eighty one thousand voters in New Hampshire, forty four percent list themselves as "undecided" - the term New Hampshire uses instead of independent. That means that on Tuesday, the “undecided” voters will be able to go to the polls, declare themselves republicans or democrats and essentially be pivotal in deciding the outcome of both races. New Hampshire, by its first in the nation position, is the vetting space for candidates; a win here means more press coverage and more money to keep a campaign afloat as the candidates move on to the next primaries on Super Tuesday in February. For New Hampshire residents, it means the end for a while of endless candidate coffees in homes, public events, meets and greets on the streets and tv lights and cameras interrupting an unsuspecting diner while trying to eat a grilled cheese sandwich. REPUBLICAN DEBATE REACTION As I arrived today, I found New Hampshire vibrant in anticipation of the Republican and Democrat primary elections that will take place just four days from now. The Republican presidential debate held at Saint Anselm College (with the Democrat debate to follow) reflected the state of the campaign among the five major contenders for the nomination. The most heated and extended exchanges occurred between former Governor Mitt Romney and U.S. Senator John McCain. In the most recent polling surveys over the past three days, McCain leads Romney in two and Romney leads McCain in one. Of all the issues addressed, to include the war on terrorism, health care and high energy prices, the one that caused the sparks to fly between Romney and McCain was illegal immigration. The discussion quickly moved beyond the call to secure our southern border to charges of supporting amnesty, lying about each others position and attack ads. It was clear from this exchange, as well as other barbs between these two candidates during the course of the debate, both realized they were ahead of the other candidates by over 2 to 1 in recent polls and they were vying for the number one position in next Tuesday's primary. The other candidates did as expected -- Governor Huckabee was articulate and friendly -- former Senator Fred Thompson made his points and was unruffled -- Mayor Guiliani kept his cool and stuck with his positions -- and Congressman Paul stuck to his libertarian agenda. The bottom line, this debate did not change the dynamics of the New Hampshire presidential primary -- the winner will be either Romney or McCain. Stay tuned DEBATES BEGIN Manchester, New Hampshire is alive. A love and passion is clear in the vast majority of people walking, driving and running across the campus at St. Anselm College. We are (Team WHYY) sitting in a media room watching the debates. The Republicans just finished. The candidates debated Iraq, foreign policy, healthcare, gas prices and illegal immigration. The five candidates disagreed with one another over how to deal with health care. As intense as the debates are inside – the level of excitement outside is just as compelling. Voters (from New Hampshire and surrounding states) are stationed on the campus… and St. Anselm Drive leading to the college. The most vocal and possibly numerous supporters are not for the party frontrunners. In fact, Democrat Dennis Kucinich fans express disappointment that their candidate was denied participation in the debate so they showed up by the bus load to shout their support. Kucinich is expected to speak to supporters outside. ABC decided candidates who have not received 5 percent support in national polls, Iowa Caucus, or latest New Hampshire polls would not be allowed to participate in the debate. Outside calls for fairness are also loud among Ron Paul supporters because the Republican Congressman is not allowed to participate in a FOX forum scheduled for Sunday. People representing the leading candidates in both parties were certainly not absent. A passing look at the eager groups outside, immediately shows plenty of Huckabee, Clinton, McCain, and Obama supporters. Those passionate voters just weren’t making as much noise as the ones committed to Kucinich or Paul. Few outside are without an allegiance to someone. Their signs, shirts, stickers and shouts made their passion clear to the hundreds of journalists who passed them on the way to the debate. |
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